# Fractured: US — US civic instability index

> US civic instability index (iPhone/iPad app by OMAR DANIEL GRAZIANO.)

- Source: https://appshunter.io/ios/app/fractured-us/id6773440472 (this page in markdown: same URL + `.md`)
- Developer: [OMAR DANIEL GRAZIANO](https://appshunter.io/developer/1896485759)
- Category: Reference, Education
- Price: Free with in-app purchases
- Age rating: 9+
- Requires: iOS 17.0 · 2 MB
- Languages: American English
- Released: 2026-06-02
- Data updated: 2026-09-01
- User reviews in markdown: https://appshunter.io/ios/app/fractured-us/id6773440472/reviews.md

## What is Fractured?

Fractured: US is a single, focused screen that surfaces one illustrative number: an estimated four-year probability of a US civil conflict, built as a weighted composite of six structural factors from the political-violence research literature.

It is a discussion tool, not a forecast. The methodology is right inside the app, in plain language, with the sources cited.

WHAT FRACTURED: US SHOWS

• A single hero probability, color-coded by risk band: Stable, Elevated, High, Severe, Critical.
• A 30-day trend sparkline so you can see the drift over the past month.
• Six contributing factors, each on a 0–100 scale with its weight visible:
  – Political Polarization (20%) — ideological distance between the major parties
  – Institutional Distrust (15%) — confidence in courts, Congress, media, elections
  – Political Violence (20%) — frequency and severity of politically motivated incidents
  – Economic Stress (10%) — inequality, real wages, housing affordability, debt
  – Partisan Animosity (20%) — share viewing the other party as a threat
  – Extremist Activity (15%) — militia mobilization and organized extremism
• A day-over-day delta so you can read direction at a glance.

THE METHODOLOGY, IN BRIEF

Each factor is tracked on a 0–100 scale, multiplied by its weight, and combined into a composite score. The score is mapped to a four-year probability through a logistic function calibrated against published expert forecasts. The methodology screen, accessible from the info button, walks through every step, names every source (Center for Systemic Peace, Walter 2022, Bartusevičius 2014), and is explicit about the model's limits.

WHAT FRACTURED: US IS NOT

• It is not a prediction.
• It is not partisan — no party, candidate, or policy is named.
• It is not a news app — there is no feed, no headlines.
• It is not connected to anything — no network calls, no accounts, no analytics.

The values are simulated around plausible baselines drawn from the cited sources. Civil-conflict probability cannot be measured directly; the academic literature offers ranges from below 5% to above 30%. Treat the number as a focal point for thinking, not a verdict.

PRIVACY

Fractured: US collects no data' Everything runs on-device. There is no account, no login, no subscription, no advertising, and no third-party SDK.

FOR

Civic-minded readers, political-science students, journalists, researchers, and anyone who wants a sober quantitative frame for a hard qualitative question. Educational use only.

## Pricing and in-app purchases

Base price: Free.

**One-time purchases**

| Purchase | Price | Type |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Show Support — $0.99 | $0.99 | one-time |
| Show Support — $2.99 | $2.99 | one-time |
| Show Support — $5.99 | $5.99 | one-time |



## Version history (last 3 releases)

### 1.2 — 2026-08-17

Squashed bugs. Enjoy!

### 1.1 — 2026-06-07

Version 1.1 brings live data to Fractured: US.

• The national risk index and all six factors now update automatically every week, drawn from live economic indicators, national news-event monitoring, and curated research.
• Reliability improvements to the home-screen widget and daily notification.

### 1.0 — 2026-06-02

No release notes.

## More apps by OMAR DANIEL GRAZIANO

- [Cycle Cipher](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/cycle-cipher/id6767546105)
- [CivBites](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/civbites/id6767999584)
- [Decanon](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/decanon/id6768711973)
- [Tanksmith](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/tanksmith/id6769517856)
- [Roomprint](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/roomprint/id6769752243)
- [Liminal: Learn Philosophy](https://appshunter.io/ios/app/liminal-learn-philosophy/id6770075835)

All apps by OMAR DANIEL GRAZIANO: https://appshunter.io/developer/1896485759

## Related topics

[omar daniel graziano](https://appshunter.io/ios/topics/omar-daniel-graziano)

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*Data collected daily from the US App Store and indexed by [AppsHunter](https://appshunter.io/). User reviews are verbatim App Store reviews. Ratings, prices and chart positions refresh continuously; this snapshot is from 2026-09-01.*