Cycles: Debt & Power

Cycles shows where eight major economies sit on three long cycles — the big cycle of internal order, the long-term debt cycle and the short-term debt cycle — and whether anything looks like it is starting to break. It is built to be calm. One curve per cycle, a dot for where each country is now, and a single date showing how current the data is. Color appears only to show better or worse. WHAT'S INSIDE • Three cycle curves for each country, with the stage, its plain-English description and how it has moved over the past year • A checklist behind every stage: each marker shows its rule, its current value and its history • "Is anything breaking?" — bond yields, credit spreads, funding stress, the dollar, volatility and more, each with watch and break levels and delayed live quotes while US markets are open • The eight powers — education, innovation, competitiveness, trade, output, military, financial center and reserve currency — as world shares, with a 3-year change and comparisons against the other countries • Tap anything for a detail panel with charts going back decades • United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, India and Argentina • Home Screen and Lock Screen widgets for any country • Light and dark mode; works offline with the last data it downloaded HOW IT READS A STAGE Each stage is a short checklist of markers with an exact rule. A country is in the latest stage where at least half of its known markers are on. The stages follow the descriptions in Ray Dalio's books Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order (2021) and How Countries Go Broke (2025); his own published calls are shown as a quiet reference. This is an independent reading of public data. It is not his model and is not affiliated with or endorsed by him or Bridgewater Associates. DATA SOURCES All free and public: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), BIS, IMF World Economic Outlook and COFER, World Bank, OECD, Our World in Data, World Inequality Database, SIPRI, UNDP, BCRA, US Treasury Fiscal Data and Cboe delayed quotes (about 15 minutes). NOT ADVICE Cycles is for education and general information only. It is not investment, financial, tax or legal advice, and it does not recommend buying or selling anything. No accounts, no ads, no tracking.