Tectonix

Tectonix shows the probability of a magnitude 4 or larger earthquake in California over the next 7 days, updated every day. This is forecasting: Tectonix gives probabilities over areas and 7-day windows, like a flood map. It never says "a quake will hit X on day Y," because no one can do that honestly. THE 7-DAY FORECAST • A map of where earthquake probability is concentrated in California this week • The chance of at least one M4+ earthquake in California and its coastal waters this week, next to a typical week (about 37%) • The statewide outlook rated normal, elevated, or high against that typical week • A plain-English overview of the week, written daily by AI from the forecast and public USGS data YOUR AREA • Optional: share your location to see the chance of an M4+ within 30 km of you this week • Rated normal, elevated, or high on one fixed scale used across California • See how your area compares with the rest of the state, the nearest hotspot, and recent earthquakes near you • Your location is used only on your iPhone. It is never uploaded. RECENT EARTHQUAKES • A live map and list of recent earthquakes in and near California from the USGS public feed • Magnitude, depth, time, and distance from you • One tap to the full USGS event page, with shaking and felt reports • Optional notifications for new M4+ earthquakes within 100 km, checked when you open the app PREPAREDNESS • A preparedness plan tailored to your household: adults, kids, pets, home type, medications, and whether you have a car • A checklist that remembers your progress • Priorities that adjust when your area's outlook rises REWIND See what the model showed after the first large shock of three California sequences, before the largest quake that followed: Ridgecrest 2019, Landers–Big Bear 1992, and Superstition Hills 1987. These are replays run later on the earthquakes recorded up to each moment, not forecasts issued at the time. THE MODEL, IN THE OPEN Tectonix blends aftershock physics (ETAS, fitted on 45 years of California data), long-term seismicity maps, recent activity, and geodetic strain. In retrospective tests on 8.5 years of California earthquakes (2018–2026), the core model behind Tectonix outscored an identically fitted ETAS aftershock model. These are upper-bound estimates against our own ETAS fit; the live forecast log is the real test. The app explains how the model works and its limits. PRIVATE BY DESIGN • No account, no sign-up • No analytics, no ads, no tracking • Settings, checklist, and household details stay on your device • Works offline with the last forecast it downloaded, or a built-in one IMPORTANT Tectonix is a probabilistic forecasting and preparedness tool. It does not issue earthquake warnings and cannot tell you that shaking is about to start. For official shaking alerts, use USGS ShakeAlert (Wireless Emergency Alerts and the MyShake app), and always follow guidance from local emergency officials.