MCarloRisk vs Candlestick Charting

Stock price / probability risk analyzer & optimizer for the common man. See also our new support for top cryptocurrencies. Now with portfolio support, pairwise correlation/regression analysis of daily returns, and portfolio optimization. Computes forward (price,probability) for your share-weighted portfolio. Unlike other folio optimizers, this code does not assume normality of returns, nor does it require to you enter volatility estimates...these are computed from public historical return data, and you can tell it how far back to look to compute the volatility. Try some optimizations and compare to results from other codes! Main data feed is the innovative IEX. Why rely on the tea leaves of chart reading when you can apply real statistics and historical resampled data to your analysis? While charting tools such as Bollinger bands, moving averages, and candlesticks are generated only on historical data, this app takes past data and remixes it via Monte Carlo methods to generate thousands of possible future price walks, then computes the probabilities of those price outcomes. Also works for stock-like ETFs and short ETFs (e.g. SH = short SPY). Estimates future price distribution using random walk theory, where random samples are chosen from the history of the stock in question. User can control how far back in time to use historical data to capture only the current "epoch" or to take into account long term historical behavior. Built-in backtesting, verification, and model tuning tools. -- Details -- This app models daily stock returns as a stable stochastic process and estimates a future price distribution by Monte Carlo re-sampling from an "empirical distribution" of a user-specified subset of prior (known) daily returns. Be sure to press the Run Monte button on the Monte Carlo tab after changing settings or downloading a new data set. This app downloads historical data from IEX as base data to resample. Prices are converted to daily returns [P(t)/P(t-1)] before resampling. The user can choose how far back to resample. By estimating a probability distribution of future prices at the user-specified investment horizon in this manner, we can give risk-of-loss estimates in thumb-rule fashion, to a first approximation. Reports out estimated price and %loss estimates at the commonly used levels of 1st percentile and 5th percentile (1% and 5% risk). Also reports out median (50th percentile) price estimates at the given number of days forward. Calculations are performed on daily Closing price data. An artificial shock filter is provided, which can be used to reject the resampling of prior returns that are artificially large (due to splits or other artificial re-valuations that do not affect the underlying value of the asset). Theory of operation is described in detail under the Theory tab. The stochastic model may be tuned or calibrated by adjusting the maximum number of days backwards to sample and/or a back in time linear weighting. Stochastic Model Validation (backtest) features: On the Monte Carlo tab, you can withhold any number of recent days from the model and then plot the results of the stochastic risk forecast as lower-bound envelopes at 1% and %5 and all other estimated probability (risk) levels dynamically after the model run is completed. Validate tab: This allows you to perform an exhaustive validation on your model by withholding several points, computing the model, comparing the forward prediction of the model versus the actual reserved data, and repeating this over time for all withheld points. The app provider makes no claims as to the suitability of this app for any purpose whatsoever, and the user should consult an investment advisor before making investment decisions.

This App, Candlestick Charting integrated with Technical Analysis, gives you the tools you need to help you become a successful trader. It provides the following benefits to help you in your trading plan: * Candlestick Patterns - Detects more than 70 of the most widely recognizable candlestick patterns providing key patterns for trend reversals. * Supports Equities, Commodities and FOREX. * Patterns - Stock Screener which integrates many highly respected technical indicators with time-tested candlestick patterns so you have a definite edge in your search for good quality stocks. * Systems - Systems which integrates several profitable trading systems into the App, which can be used with candlestick analysis (Candlesticks, Bolllinger, PSAR, Volatility Stops/Reversals, PSAR Stops/Reversals, Keltner Squeezes, Scalp System, and more being added regularly.) * Trending Indicators - Detects strong trending stocks and helps traders profit by taking chunks out of the middle of important trends (ADX) * Directional Indicators - Detects when buying overtakes selling and the tide has changed course (ADX, +-DI) * Stop and Reverse Indicators - Detects trend reversals (PSAR, Volatility Stops) * Momentum Indicators - Catch explosive greater than expected moves using Keltner squeeze * Volume Indicators - Detects the force behind these moves (Volume, Intraday Intensity, Keltner) * Moving Average Indicators - Helps traders understand key support/resistance levels (MA, EMA, Bollinger Bands, ATR Bands) Setup a watch list of your favorite trading stocks. Monitor these stocks as this App automatically detects new patterns and signals. See patterns as they develop throughout the day real-time, used either as confirmation of a previous day's pattern or as a key to spotting a new patterns develop. These patterns tightly integrated with some of the most highly respected technical indicators, provides the tools you need to help you spot trend reversals quickly and easily, focusing your attention on "high probability" market signals. The visual display of bearish and bullish sentiment will help you towards understanding the emotional dynamic, to help gain insight into whether the trend will reverse or continue, with the ultimate goal of earning a higher rate of return on your investments. This app supports a "free", "basic", and "premium" version of the application. The free version limits the # of portfolios you can create, symbols tracked/followed, screens available, and technicals that can be applied to the charts. The "basic" version removes these limitations and includes full access to portfolios, charting, and candlestick pattern screener. It will also unlock the candlesticks trading system feature in the systems tab, providing buy/sell alerts to your favorite stocks. The "premium" version of the application unlocks the rest of the advance trading systems tab, giving you the highest possible edge in trading the market. Disclaimer Buy/selling securities is inherit with risk and you assume all responsibilities associated with this risk. The information drawn and analysis provided is believed to be reliable but in no way is guaranteed. You assume all risk associated with using the data provided herein and in no way can the developer of this App assume any liability.