OptionPosition+ vs MCarloRisk3D

OptionPosition+ Version 4.1 OptionPosition+ is a financial analysis App that estimates the value of a set of shares and put and call options for a particular stock. It allows the investor to explore various option hedging positions and create a portfolio that is sensitive to price and volatility fluctuations or that provides protection for various concerns. OptionPosition+ graphically illustrates the value of put protection, covered calls, call spreads, time spreads, delta neutral skew trades, iron condors, etc.. Further information is available at https://www.optionposition.com OptionPosition+ comes with an initial one month subscription period that provides access to data on most stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ and certain indexes (i.e. NDX, NQX, XND). After this one month subscription period you may purchase an auto-renewing subscription through an In-App Purchase. (If you do not maintain a subscription you can only access stock and option data for AAPL.) • Auto-renewable subscription • 1 month ($2.99), 2 month ($4.99) and 3 month ($5.99) durations • Your subscription will be charged to your iTunes account at confirmation of purchase and will automatically renew (at the duration selected) unless auto-renew is turned off at least 24 hours before the end of the current period. • Current subscription may not be cancelled during the active subscription period; however, you can manage your subscription and/or turn off auto-renewal by visiting your iTunes Account Settings after purchase. • Privacy policy and terms of use: https://sites.google.com/site/kramerkramersoftware/ OptionPosition+ Features: • delayed stock and option prices for all available strike dates and strike prices (delay varies from 0 to 20 minutes) • remembers 30 different portfolios each with 6 assets: ..........puts, calls, shares or child portfolios ......................child portfolios can have different underlying stock ......................child portfolios have correlated price ..........long, short any quantity ..........all listed strike dates ..........all listed strike prices ..........e-mail to anyone • Black-Scholes equation used to determine implied volatility and future value of put and call options • graphically displays Gain/Loss, Delta, Vega, Theta or Gamma as a function of stock price: ..........now (see black lines below) ..........at any future date up to the earliest strike date (see red lines below) ..........at assumed higher or lower volatilities (see green lines below) ..........with a changing price correlation to child portfolios included as an item/hedge • graphically displays the probability of future stock prices and the probability of future option portfolio Gains/Losses based on current put/call straddle prices • graphically displays the Volatility Smile for any expiration date • scales on the graph are continuously adjustable with one and two finger moves – easily zoom in or out • tap on the graph to show the X,Y value at a point and the value of the curves at that X value • diagnostics table shows all Greeks and lets you easily create a Delta neutral portfolio • 3 month US dollar LIBOR used for risk free interest rate • incorporates predicted dividend payments into the Black-Scholes calculations without making a ‘fixed dividend rate’ error in Delta Screen shots: For an explanation of these option positions, and more, see our website www.OptionPosition.com. Screen shots shown below (for both iPhone and iPad): 1) Gain/Loss for a Put Protection in AAPL 2) Gain/Loss graph for an Iron Condor in AAPL 3) Assets (iPad includes Diagnostics) for the Iron Condor in AAPL 4) Delta graph for the Iron Condor in AAPL 5) Probability of the value of the Gain/Loss for the Iron Condor in AAPL 6) Volatility Smile using data source A

Get estimates of price / probability distribution into the future, fast, for stocks and crypto. Backtest your results. Don't just multiply volatility by root(t), do a monte carlo study and cover the extreme bases. Give the symbol-pushers a run for their money. Can your equation throw in random, out of the ordinary shocks of different magnitude and probability? This app can! MCarloRisk3D: with 3D viewing options for better understanding of the estimated probability surface. Now with price data feeds for higher market cap crypto coins. Stock price risk analyzer app for the common man. Now with optional Black Swan events and tunable forward volatility. Estimates future price distribution using random walk theory. 
Background discussion: E. Fama article on early random walk studies from the 1960's:

 http://www.ifa.com/Media/Images/PDF%20files/FamaRandomWalk.pdf

 New model calibration tutorial:

 http://diffent.com/tuning1.pdf

 The app uses prior data from the stock in question for volatility estimates. 

User can control how far back in time to use historical data to capture only the current "epoch" of a company or of the market as a whole if desired. 
Built-in backtesting, verification, and model tuning tools.

 -- Details -- 

This app models daily stock returns as a stable stochastic process and estimates a future price distribution by Monte Carlo re-sampling from an "empirical distribution" of a user-specified subset of prior (known) daily returns. 

Be sure to press the Run Monte button on the Monte Carlo tab after changing settings or downloading a new data set. 

This app downloads historical data from Google Finance as base data to resample. Prices are converted to daily returns [P(t)/P(t-1)] before resampling. The user can choose how far back to resample. By estimating a probability distribution of future prices at the user-specified investment horizon in this manner, we can give risk-of-loss estimates in thumb-rule fashion. 

Reports out estimated price and %loss estimates at the commonly used levels of 1st percentile and 5th percentile (1% and 5% risk). Also reports out median (50th percentile) price estimates at the given number of days forward. Calculations are performed on daily Closing price data. An artificial shock filter is provided, which can be used to reject the resampling of prior returns that are artificially large (due to splits or other artificial re-valuations that do not affect the underlying value of the asset). The stochastic model may be tuned or calibrated only by adjusting the maximum number of days backwards to sample or adjusting the black swan parameters. Model Validation features: 

On the Monte Carlo tab, you can withhold any number of recent days from the model and then plot the results of the stochastic risk forecast as lower-bound envelopes at 1% and %5 estimated probability (risk) levels. 

 Validate tab:

 This allows you to perform an exhaustive validation on your model by withholding several points, computing the model, comparing the forward prediction of the model versus the actual reserved data, and repeating this in increasing time sequence for all withheld points.

 A vertical "Cursor Beam" is provided that you can drag across the new plots in the Monte Carlo tab and the Validate tab to show the plotted values from several curves at once, with the values color-coded to the curves.

 Show the full price probability plot linked to the days-forward setting of the Monte Carlo graph. This is a slice thru the probability surface generated by the Monte Carlo procedure.
 The app provider makes no claims as to the suitability of this app for any purpose whatsoever, and the user should consult an investment advisor before making investment decisions.