MCarloRisk3D vs FairOption

Get estimates of price / probability distribution into the future, fast, for stocks and crypto. Backtest your results. Don't just multiply volatility by root(t), do a monte carlo study and cover the extreme bases. Give the symbol-pushers a run for their money. Can your equation throw in random, out of the ordinary shocks of different magnitude and probability? This app can! MCarloRisk3D: with 3D viewing options for better understanding of the estimated probability surface. Now with price data feeds for higher market cap crypto coins. Stock price risk analyzer app for the common man. Now with optional Black Swan events and tunable forward volatility. Estimates future price distribution using random walk theory. 
Background discussion: E. Fama article on early random walk studies from the 1960's:

 http://www.ifa.com/Media/Images/PDF%20files/FamaRandomWalk.pdf

 New model calibration tutorial:

 http://diffent.com/tuning1.pdf

 The app uses prior data from the stock in question for volatility estimates. 

User can control how far back in time to use historical data to capture only the current "epoch" of a company or of the market as a whole if desired. 
Built-in backtesting, verification, and model tuning tools.

 -- Details -- 

This app models daily stock returns as a stable stochastic process and estimates a future price distribution by Monte Carlo re-sampling from an "empirical distribution" of a user-specified subset of prior (known) daily returns. 

Be sure to press the Run Monte button on the Monte Carlo tab after changing settings or downloading a new data set. 

This app downloads historical data from Google Finance as base data to resample. Prices are converted to daily returns [P(t)/P(t-1)] before resampling. The user can choose how far back to resample. By estimating a probability distribution of future prices at the user-specified investment horizon in this manner, we can give risk-of-loss estimates in thumb-rule fashion. 

Reports out estimated price and %loss estimates at the commonly used levels of 1st percentile and 5th percentile (1% and 5% risk). Also reports out median (50th percentile) price estimates at the given number of days forward. Calculations are performed on daily Closing price data. An artificial shock filter is provided, which can be used to reject the resampling of prior returns that are artificially large (due to splits or other artificial re-valuations that do not affect the underlying value of the asset). The stochastic model may be tuned or calibrated only by adjusting the maximum number of days backwards to sample or adjusting the black swan parameters. Model Validation features: 

On the Monte Carlo tab, you can withhold any number of recent days from the model and then plot the results of the stochastic risk forecast as lower-bound envelopes at 1% and %5 estimated probability (risk) levels. 

 Validate tab:

 This allows you to perform an exhaustive validation on your model by withholding several points, computing the model, comparing the forward prediction of the model versus the actual reserved data, and repeating this in increasing time sequence for all withheld points.

 A vertical "Cursor Beam" is provided that you can drag across the new plots in the Monte Carlo tab and the Validate tab to show the plotted values from several curves at once, with the values color-coded to the curves.

 Show the full price probability plot linked to the days-forward setting of the Monte Carlo graph. This is a slice thru the probability surface generated by the Monte Carlo procedure.
 The app provider makes no claims as to the suitability of this app for any purpose whatsoever, and the user should consult an investment advisor before making investment decisions.

WELCOME to the FairOption App *** THE GOLD STANDARD OPTION PRICING CALCULATOR (Since 2014) *** Version 3.2 is a super-powerful, easy-to-use option pricing tool completely rewritten using Apple's latest SwiftUI framework, and now available for numerous Apple devices including iPhone, Mac, iPad and Apple Watch. All versions include syncing of your securities data across all Apple platforms you purchase the App. See screenshots here for the main features, and website video for more detail. If you are someone who wants the best option pricing software on the top and most secure Apple platform, then you can do no better than use the FairOption App. FEATURES and BENEFITS: - Fast Option Pricing in a fully interactive, two-way scrollable grid. - Works great in Light and Dark Modes (Plus in Landscape and Portrait orientations on iPhone and iPad). - Greeks are displayed (with descriptions) by a single tap on any option result. - Auto Syncing of securities between your Apple devices. (The App is supplied per-platform) - Comprehensive Help document covering all app features and settings. - Binomial and Black-Scholes pricing models are included. (The Binomial has an adjustable number of calculation steps and is more suited to American exercise-style options. The Black-Scholes-Merton model is better for pricing European options and is adapted for dividend-paying securities) - Included Continuously Compounded Interest Rate calculator for input of the risk-free interest rate parameter. (Extensive explanation contained within help document) - Automatic strike price intervals that can be easily overridden with 1 tap. - Editable default template for all new securities. - Numerous utilities, including for import/export of securities data to a local file (in JSON or CSV format) for spreadsheet analysis, or backup/restore purposes. - Added Demo data utility: to help you get 'up-to-speed' using the 'Quick Start Guide'. - Test Calc mode to set a fixed amount of time to expiry for test and comparison purposes. - No 'in-app' purchases. (It's already 'All-in-there'!) - Designed by main Developer with over 30 years' experience of developing financial and option pricing software. *** Whether you are a Pro Trader, or someone just starting out learning about options, you will find FairOption to be an invaluable tool *** WHAT'S NEW in VERSION 3.2: - Ability to sync across all Apple device platforms you purchase the app - Complete rewrite using SwiftUI (The framework first introduced by Apple in 2019) - Import/Export of Securities data (This facilitates independent local backup and restore via the JSON file format) - Included Demo Data utility for testing and familiarity purposes. - All Option results tables are scrollable in both directions on all devices and fully interactive - Short-term Weeklys and longer-term LEAPS option expiry variants are specifically catered for - Improved, faster switching between Call and Put option results, but whilst still maintaining the current expiry and strike price selection - Included Continuously Compounded Interest Rate Calculator for easy calculation of the risk-free interest rate parameter - Editable default template for all new securities SUPPORT We welcome feedback and suggestions concerning FairOption. Please contact us at support@FairOption.com if you have any problems Our Terms of use: https://www.fairoption.com/terms.php Our Privacy Policy: https://www.fairoption.com/privacy.php Apple's Licence Agreement: https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/