Reckon vs The Decision Navigator

Reckon ranks hypotheses by what hasn't been knocked down — not by what has the most support. Most decision tools let you write a long pros-and-cons list and call it analysis. That doesn't help — you can rationalize anything in prose. Reckon makes you compare every piece of evidence against every hypothesis and ranks them by Heuer's ACH technique (the method CIA analysts use): fewest refutations first, with a tiebreak on most support. WHAT YOU GET • A starter library: pick from six pre-built example boards (shortseller, founder, researcher, investigator, life decision, doctor) or describe your situation in a paragraph and let on-device AI seed the matrix for you. • Inline bias guardrails: when one hypothesis collects evidence all in the same direction, Reckon flags it. "Bears out" without "Cuts against" is the structural signature of confirmation bias. • Falsifier pre-commitment: state up front what evidence would prove a hypothesis wrong. The app reminds you whether that evidence ever showed up. • Steel-manning before ruling out: before you dismiss a hypothesis, Reckon asks for the strongest case for it. Stops you from throwing out the right answer too early. • Pre-mortem: after you reach a conclusion, the app asks you to imagine being wrong about it in a year. Catches wishful thinking that even refutation-first scoring misses. • Calibration tracking: when you finalize, set your confidence (0–100%) and a check-in date (1 week to 1 year). Come back when the date arrives, log the actual outcome, and Reckon shows your calibration curve over time. Are you actually right when you say you're 80% sure? • Strict Bayes mode (optional): set explicit priors per hypothesis and the matrix shows real Bayesian posterior probabilities updating with each rating, using likelihood ratios per Tetlock/Heuer convention. Real probability, not a heuristic. • Plain English mode: turns off the celestial vocabulary if you'd rather see "Hypotheses / Evidence / Matrix" than "Stars / Observations / Star chart." Same depth, less poetry. • Templates: save your hypothesis structure (e.g. forensic-accounting suspects, differential-diagnosis options) for reuse. Faster on your 12th board than your 1st. PRIVACY Local-only. Your boards, evidence, conclusions, and calibration history stay on your device. No server, no analytics, no ads. AI seed runs entirely on-device via Apple Intelligence — your situation never leaves your phone. WHY ACH Confirming evidence is cheap. Refuting evidence distinguishes. Most decision tools amplify confirmation bias by rewarding biggest positive sum. Reckon does the opposite. iOS 17+. AI seed and Strict Bayes posterior require iOS 26+ on Apple Intelligence-capable devices.

Decision Navigator turns a high-stakes career call — a job offer, grad school, a relocation, staying vs. leaving — into a clear, defensible verdict you can actually trust. Instead of an anxious pros-and-cons list, you frame the choice, weigh what truly matters to you, rate each option, and watch a transparent weighted verdict resolve on the Verdict Beam. HOW IT WORKS - Frame the decision and lay out your real options - Set the criteria that matter and weight them 1-5 - Rate each option; the app computes a clear 0-100 score for every choice - See the winner, the margin, and an honest clarity read — from "clear pick" to "too close to call" WEIGH WHAT MATTERS TO YOU Build a personal framework of career values and see how well each option aligns with what you care about most. SEE WHAT WOULD CHANGE YOUR MIND Sensitivity analysis finds the single criterion that would flip the result — and by how much — so a close call never surprises you. LEARN FROM EVERY DECISION Log outcomes, review past calls, and watch your calibration improve as the app shows whether your confident decisions actually panned out. AI INSIGHT (optional) Get a plain-language read of your own decision, grounded in your numbers, in the voice you choose. DECISION NAVIGATOR PRO Unlock unlimited decisions, sensitivity analysis, the calibration dashboard, cross-decision pattern insights, and advanced AI personas. - Monthly or annual, with a 7-day free trial - $9.99/month or $99.99/year - Payment is charged to your Apple ID at confirmation; the subscription auto-renews unless canceled at least 24 hours before the period ends. Manage or cancel anytime in your App Store account settings. Decision Navigator is a decision-support tool and does not provide financial, legal, or career advice. Privacy Policy: https://preview.apppublishing.ai/legal/decision-navigator/privacy Terms of Use (EULA): https://preview.apppublishing.ai/legal/decision-navigator/terms