MVAR vs Overbet

Helps you find and test your ideas of what might be "leading indicators" of particular stocks or ETFs. For one day ahead indicators only. Explore "The Machine" of the market, and backtest your ideas forthwith. For these types of simple models, if a backtest achieves 60%+ directional accuracy over a long period, it is considered fairly good. Our backtests have metrics which check how likely it is to achieve the model's level of accuracy by flipping coins for the same number of backtest days. For example, getting 6 out of 10 correct by flipping coins (60%) is much more likely than getting 60 out of 100 (also 60%) correct by flipping coins. You must look at % correct, and also how long you get this level of accuracy. The run length Plots give an idea if the model is getting better or worse over time. We don't even report out model Fit quality to avoid confusion, since Forecast quality is usually worse than Fit quality. Hence: Always backtest to estimate Forecast quality. The app models the (close-open) price direction (that is, today's price travel) of a given target stock as a function of prior days opening and closing prices of related stocks. Also works for ETFs if they are available in Google Finance historical data. Check out our newest features: low-contributor variable weed-out for K-nearest classifier models, to reduce overfitting and possibly improve forecast quality (searching as always for the most parsimonious model, "as simple as possible but no simpler..."), and the use of volatilities as candidate leading indicators. Some use cases: - You want to keep a position open for 1 trading day only. Models built with this app can give an estimate as to whether the stock/ETF will go up or down today. - You want to buy or sell a given stock/ETF for other reasons. Models built with this app can give an estimate whether Today is a good day to buy or sell, or whether you might want to wait until a later day to make a trade. Some thoughts on backtesting, to assist with judgement calls: http://www.quantstart.com/articles/Successful-Backtesting-of-Algorithmic-Trading-Strategies-Part-I From Wikipedia: "The only prior knowledge required is a list of variables which can be hypothesized to affect each other intertemporally." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_autoregression For example, one might think that the price change of General Motors today (GM) might depend on the recent prices of oil (USO is an oil ETF). This can be modeled using a tool such as this. Note that there may not be a predictive relationship for your chosen symbols. In this case, a model's backtest will be poor (low % correct) and the model is not useful for forecasting. In the case where a backtest yields reasonable results, the model may have some predictive power for 1 day ahead forecasts. Only price travel Direction is attempted to be modeled, not the actual price change in dollars. Quickstart: 1. enter symbol to forecast and candidate predictor symbols. 2. select Backtest or Forecast. 3. Press Run. Calculation results will appear in green window. Further details at http://diffent.com/MktVecAR.pdf Features: Up to 6 candidate predictor stocks/ETFs (including target). 3 model types generated for every forecast for comparison purposes: annealing classifier (slow or fast) linear least squares k-nearest classifier 1 and 2 day data lags automatically generated [AR(2) type models] Up to 500 trading days of backtests. 1 day forward forecast. Model can be built/forecasted before market opens since "today's" open prices are not included in the model. Detailed log file of calculations. Calculations done on a server for battery conservation. Ability to Stop long calculations on the server. Download the assembled regression tables with dates aligned in CSV format for further study. Send downloaded tables to other apps on your device or via email.

Your poker ledger, in conversation. Overbet tracks cash games and tournaments, from the first buy-in to the final cash-out. Keep live notes, follow your bankroll and understand your results on iPhone. One-time purchase. No Overbet subscription. TRACK EVERY SESSION Record live and online cash games and tournaments with buy-ins, cash-outs, duration, game, stakes, venue and custom tags. Follow live play on your Lock Screen and Dynamic Island. Keep a timeline of notes, chip counts, photos and tournament progress. KNOW YOUR RESULTS Explore bankroll charts, profit, hourly rate, ROI and session highlights. Compare periods and types of play. Combine filters to focus on the games, stakes, tags and venues that matter to you. SIRI AND SHORTCUTS Start, pause, resume and finish sessions, add buy-ins and timeline updates, or log completed play. Session creation keeps the type, amount and venue you provide, with saved preferences for omitted details. Siri can attempt to attach your current location when permitted. CONNECT YOUR AI ASSISTANT Ask about your real Overbet history and manage sessions through a compatible MCP connection. Use supported clients from Grok, Grok Bot, Claude, Cursor, Gemini, OpenAI or another provider. Try asking: • “Show my 2026 online tournaments on Club WPT tagged Study.” • “We just went on break, I have 192 thousand chips, 567 players left.” • “Back from break with 210k.” • “That buy-in was $150, not $100.” • “I finished 13th out of 1,200 and cashed for $800.” Combine year, month, session type, tags, game, cash stakes and venue filters. Retrieve all matching sessions, compare results, correct records, log past dates, search notes and recall complete timelines. A single break update can save the pause, note, chips and players remaining together. Timed breaks can resume automatically. PHOTOS AND YOUR HISTORY Use photo chip-count estimates and session photo autofill in the app. Review the result and keep the source photo with your session. Import and export completed sessions as CSV. Compatible assistants with file and image tools can also attach photos and transfer filtered history. YOU CONTROL THE CONNECTION Open Settings → Connect Chats → Allow connected chats, then connect from your assistant. Sign in to the same Overbet account and allow access. Zen and Hide Bankroll apply to connected chats. Turn off the setting to stop access. Assistant features require remote MCP and OAuth support. Available connections, files and images vary by client and plan; the documented Gemini setup uses Gemini CLI. Third-party services may require a separate account or plan. Siri availability and recognition depend on your device and language. Core session tracking works without connecting an assistant. Setup and examples: https://overbet.app/docs/mcp/ What’s new: https://overbet.app/updates/7-1/