USMLE Bio/Physio Cram Cards vs Bayesian P

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Calculate probability of outcomes of clinical trials, by interpreting reported p-values in the context of scientific expectations, using prior probabilities of outcomes and Bayesian thinking. · p-values are frequently misused and misinterpreted ( see American Statistical Association statement on p-values) · Bayesian inference aids interpretation of p-values with reference to prior knowledge of the probability of the experimental outcome · P-value Interpreter permits realistic interpretation of reported p-values from user entered pre-trial probabilities of clinical trial outcomes and p-values for single and sequential trials · "Learn more" buttons lead to explanations of prior probabilities, p-values and Bayesian probabilities employed in calculating the direct probability of the trial outcomes (e.g. null hypothesis being false), illustrated with examples