Riskquarry: Delivery Odds

Riskquarry is a seeded Monte Carlo schedule-risk simulator that runs entirely on one fast screen. It models a worked example project — five dependent tasks with three-point (optimistic / likely / pessimistic) estimates and correlated work — and runs thousands of simulations to show honest completion odds instead of a single optimistic sum. Read the result at a glance: P50, P80, and P95 confidence dates, the mean, a histogram of every simulated finish with a P80 marker, and a sensitivity chart ranking which tasks drive the most uncertainty. Tasks that share staff or a vendor slip together in each run, so the spread reflects real correlated risk. Adjust the run count from 500 to 10,000 and reseed to see how stable the forecast is. FEATURES • Seeded, reproducible Monte Carlo engine — thousands of runs • Triangular three-point task estimates • Dependency-aware critical-path finish per run • Correlated task groups that slip together • P50 / P80 / P95 confidence dates and mean • Completion histogram with a P80 marker • Risk-sensitivity chart ranking variance drivers PREMIUM BY DESIGN One-time purchase. No account, no ads, no analytics, no tracking, no in-app purchases, and no network access — Riskquarry runs entirely on your device, fully offline. Riskquarry simulates the entered triangular estimates and does not predict the future. Dependencies, scope changes, staffing, and unknown work can dominate real outcomes — communicate ranges, not guarantees.