Reckon vs TaskFlow

Reckon ranks hypotheses by what hasn't been knocked down — not by what has the most support. Most decision tools let you write a long pros-and-cons list and call it analysis. That doesn't help — you can rationalize anything in prose. Reckon makes you compare every piece of evidence against every hypothesis and ranks them by Heuer's ACH technique (the method CIA analysts use): fewest refutations first, with a tiebreak on most support. WHAT YOU GET • A starter library: pick from six pre-built example boards (shortseller, founder, researcher, investigator, life decision, doctor) or describe your situation in a paragraph and let on-device AI seed the matrix for you. • Inline bias guardrails: when one hypothesis collects evidence all in the same direction, Reckon flags it. "Bears out" without "Cuts against" is the structural signature of confirmation bias. • Falsifier pre-commitment: state up front what evidence would prove a hypothesis wrong. The app reminds you whether that evidence ever showed up. • Steel-manning before ruling out: before you dismiss a hypothesis, Reckon asks for the strongest case for it. Stops you from throwing out the right answer too early. • Pre-mortem: after you reach a conclusion, the app asks you to imagine being wrong about it in a year. Catches wishful thinking that even refutation-first scoring misses. • Calibration tracking: when you finalize, set your confidence (0–100%) and a check-in date (1 week to 1 year). Come back when the date arrives, log the actual outcome, and Reckon shows your calibration curve over time. Are you actually right when you say you're 80% sure? • Strict Bayes mode (optional): set explicit priors per hypothesis and the matrix shows real Bayesian posterior probabilities updating with each rating, using likelihood ratios per Tetlock/Heuer convention. Real probability, not a heuristic. • Plain English mode: turns off the celestial vocabulary if you'd rather see "Hypotheses / Evidence / Matrix" than "Stars / Observations / Star chart." Same depth, less poetry. • Templates: save your hypothesis structure (e.g. forensic-accounting suspects, differential-diagnosis options) for reuse. Faster on your 12th board than your 1st. PRIVACY Local-only. Your boards, evidence, conclusions, and calibration history stay on your device. No server, no analytics, no ads. AI seed runs entirely on-device via Apple Intelligence — your situation never leaves your phone. WHY ACH Confirming evidence is cheap. Refuting evidence distinguishes. Most decision tools amplify confirmation bias by rewarding biggest positive sum. Reckon does the opposite. iOS 17+. AI seed and Strict Bayes posterior require iOS 26+ on Apple Intelligence-capable devices.

TaskFlow is a to-do list and daily planner that helps you decide what to do first, and then do it. Type a task the way you would say it: "Call dentist tomorrow 3pm" sets the date and the time for you. TaskFlow sorts your open tasks into an Eisenhower Matrix, a built-in focus timer keeps you on one thing at a time, and a weekly review shows how your week went. EISENHOWER MATRIX • Your open tasks are sorted automatically into Do First, Schedule, Delegate and Eliminate, from their priority and due date • See at a glance what is urgent and what is important QUICK ADD IN PLAIN ENGLISH • Dates, times, priorities and categories are picked up from what you type: "tomorrow", "next week", "at 5pm", "high priority" • Subtasks, tags and notes for bigger tasks • Ready-made templates such as Morning Routine, Work Day and Weekly Review FOCUS TIMER • Pomodoro-style work and break sessions with durations you choose • Link a session to a task and watch your focus minutes add up PLAN YOUR DAY • Overdue, Today and Tomorrow at a glance, with a progress ring for today's plan • Calendar view and an hour-by-hour daily planner • Smart Lists: Overdue, High Priority, Due This Week, or your own filters by tag, priority and category • Smart Sort orders tasks by urgency (due date and priority) REVIEW YOUR WEEK • Weekly Review with a productivity score from 0 to 100, compared with last week • Statistics for completed tasks, focus time and habits HABITS AND NOTES • Simple daily habits with streaks and a heatmap • Color-coded quick notes with search REMINDERS • Reminders for individual tasks, plus an optional morning overview, evening summary and overdue alerts PRIVATE BY DESIGN • Works offline, with no account and no sign-up • Your tasks stay on your device; no ads, no tracking • Export your tasks as a backup file (JSON) whenever you like TASKFLOW PREMIUM (OPTIONAL) Everything above is free. Premium adds recurring tasks: • Repeat any task daily, on weekdays, weekly or monthly • Type "daily" or "every week" in quick add to make a task repeat • When you complete a repeating task, the next one is ready, with its reminder Plans (US prices; your local price is shown before you buy): • Weekly: $1.99 per week • Monthly: $4.99 per month • Annual: $29.99 per year • Lifetime: $69.99, one-time purchase New subscribers get a 7-day free trial on the weekly, monthly and annual plans. Payment is charged to your Apple ID at confirmation of purchase, or when the free trial ends. Subscriptions renew automatically unless cancelled at least 24 hours before the end of the current period. Manage or cancel them in your App Store account settings. Privacy Policy: https://cinderspire.github.io/support/privacy-taskflow.html Terms of Use (EULA): https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/