Deviate vs Prediction Market Tracker

Gone are the days of spending tons of time searching through prediction markets for small mispricings or opportunities. You now have Deviate. Deviate is a handheld model that scans sports prediction markets 24/7 and notifies you whenever there is edge in a game, series, or event. It computes probability from historical game data, compares it against what prediction markets are pricing right now, and alerts you when the two pull apart to help you identify positive expected value opportunities. HOW IT WORKS The model reads the game state: score, server, inning, possession, time remaining. Every state maps to a win probability computed from historical outcomes in comparable situations. Market prices update continuously. So does the model. When the gap passes the threshold you set, you get a notification. You get both numbers, the size of the gap, and a plain-English explanation of why it fired. What you do with it is your call. WHY THE TWO NUMBERS DISAGREE Markets price things a raw historical lookup doesn't. If a favorite drops a set, the price already reflects that this is a favorite. That's why some "the numbers say" content is quietly wrong. Deviate's models are state-conditional and validated against real outcomes before they ship. The baseball model runs on decades of play-by-play data. Each one is checked against empirical frequencies. WHAT'S IN THE APP The edge page shows every alert that's currently open, with the model number, the market number, and the reasoning behind it. Live shows every market Deviate is tracking, with current prices and volume. History is the full record of every alert that has resolved, wins and losses both. Settings is where you pick your sports, set your minimum edge, and cap how many alerts you're willing to get in a day. In the account section, you can manage your subscription and cancel anytime. PUBLIC TRACK RECORD Every alert is timestamped when it's sent, not scored after the fact. Wins and losses. You can open the history and read the whole thing before you pay for anything. BUILT TO BE USEFUL Deviate is a pager, not a feed. Pick your sports, set your minimum edge, cap your alerts per day, and close the app. It only alerts you when something is actually there. PRICING Two weeks free, then $9.99/month. Cancel any time in your Apple ID settings. DISCLAIMER Deviate is not affiliated with or endorsed by any exchange. Deviate does not facilitate or allow any type of event-based trading on its platform. Deviate does not provide any outstanding recommendations or absolute suggestions for event-based contracts. The app simply displays mispricings based on an in-house built model. All trading occurs on third-party platforms if the user decides to trade based on model-provided analytics. Trading event contracts involve the risk of loss. Past performances do not indicate future results. Terms of Use (EULA): https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/

Trading on multiple prediction platforms means you are constantly guessing your true profit and loss. Prediction Market Tracker solves this by pulling your Kalshi and Polymarket positions into one unified, live dashboard. Stop doing math in your head and see your total portfolio value instantly. WHAT IT DOES: THE UNIFIED LEDGER When you open the app, you are greeted with a clear hero number. This is your combined total open profit and loss. It shows exactly how much money you are up or down in total. If you only want to look at one platform, a simple toggle lets you switch between seeing everything together, just your Kalshi account, or just your Polymarket wallet. We also show you when you have unclaimed winnings. If a market resolves in your favor but you have not redeemed the funds yet, a banner will appear at the top of your screen so you never leave money sitting on the table. We also alert you to any markets resolving within the next 24 hours. Below your total balance, you will see a list of every single open position you hold. Each row shows the title of the market, which side you took, and your profit or loss. Tapping on any row opens a detailed view showing your quantity, average purchase price, the current market price, and exactly how many days are left until the market resolves. FULL ACTIVITY HISTORY We merge your trades, redemptions, rebates, and rewards from both platforms into a single chronological feed. You can even star your favorite trades to save them for later. TAX TIME MADE INCREDIBLY EASY Figuring out your taxes for prediction markets can be a nightmare. Our app includes a Taxes tab that calculates your realized gains and losses automatically. We use a strict First In First Out matching system. When you sell a contract, the app perfectly matches it to the oldest one you bought, calculating your true profit exactly the way you need it. With one single tap, you can export a CSV spreadsheet of your complete transaction history or your realized gains, ready for your records. THE WATCHLIST AND MARKET RULES Not ready to buy yet? Add any market to your Watchlist. You can track trending markets or search for specific topics across both Kalshi and Polymarket at the exact same time. We pull the exact resolution rules directly from the platforms and put them right inside the app, so you never have to guess what Yes or No actually means. BACKGROUND PRICE ALERTS One of the biggest frustrations with mobile trading is missing a price movement, but we built a custom solution. You can set specific price targets for any market. Choose a Rises Above or Falls Below target, and our dedicated system will watch the live prices for you. When a market crosses your target, you will get an instant push notification on your screen, even if the app is closed. TOTAL PRIVACY AND SECURITY This app was built with a strict local first architecture. Your portfolio data lives entirely on your device. The app connects directly to the public data feeds provided by Kalshi and Polymarket. Your Kalshi API key is stored securely in the native Apple Keychain on your phone. Your private financial data, trades, and balances never touch our servers. The only information our server ever sees is an anonymous device token, the public ID of the market you want an alert for. That is it. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS Prediction Market Tracker is a personal tracking tool. It is neither a broker nor a trading platform. You cannot place trades or move money through this app. This app simply provides a better way to view the data you already have.