Fractured: US

Fractured: US is a single, focused screen that surfaces one illustrative number: an estimated four-year probability of a US civil conflict, built as a weighted composite of six structural factors from the political-violence research literature. It is a discussion tool, not a forecast. The methodology is right inside the app, in plain language, with the sources cited. WHAT FRACTURED: US SHOWS • A single hero probability, color-coded by risk band: Stable, Elevated, High, Severe, Critical. • A 30-day trend sparkline so you can see the drift over the past month. • Six contributing factors, each on a 0–100 scale with its weight visible: – Political Polarization (20%) — ideological distance between the major parties – Institutional Distrust (15%) — confidence in courts, Congress, media, elections – Political Violence (20%) — frequency and severity of politically motivated incidents – Economic Stress (10%) — inequality, real wages, housing affordability, debt – Partisan Animosity (20%) — share viewing the other party as a threat – Extremist Activity (15%) — militia mobilization and organized extremism • A day-over-day delta so you can read direction at a glance. THE METHODOLOGY, IN BRIEF Each factor is tracked on a 0–100 scale, multiplied by its weight, and combined into a composite score. The score is mapped to a four-year probability through a logistic function calibrated against published expert forecasts. The methodology screen, accessible from the info button, walks through every step, names every source (Center for Systemic Peace, Walter 2022, Bartusevičius 2014), and is explicit about the model's limits. WHAT FRACTURED: US IS NOT • It is not a prediction. • It is not partisan — no party, candidate, or policy is named. • It is not a news app — there is no feed, no headlines. • It is not connected to anything — no network calls, no accounts, no analytics. The values are simulated around plausible baselines drawn from the cited sources. Civil-conflict probability cannot be measured directly; the academic literature offers ranges from below 5% to above 30%. Treat the number as a focal point for thinking, not a verdict. PRIVACY Fractured: US collects no data' Everything runs on-device. There is no account, no login, no subscription, no advertising, and no third-party SDK. FOR Civic-minded readers, political-science students, journalists, researchers, and anyone who wants a sober quantitative frame for a hard qualitative question. Educational use only.