Fractured: US
US civic instability index
About
This app provides an estimated probability of US civil conflict based on six structural factors. It serves as a discussion tool, not a forecast, offering detailed methodology and data sources.
What's New in Fractured
1.4
September 13, 2026
Fractured can now ask, every so often, whether you would like to rate it on the App Store. The invitation appears a few seconds after the app opens, never more than a handful of times a year, and not at all once you have left a rating. Nothing else has changed: the index, its factors and its sources are exactly as they were in 1.3.
MoreSubscriptions & In-App Purchases
$0.99
Show Support — $0.99
A one-time contribution to support the app.
Developer apps
FAQ
What is Fractured: US?
Fractured: US is a reference app that displays an estimated four-year probability of US civil conflict. It is built as a weighted composite of six structural factors and serves as a discussion tool, not a forecast.
How does Fractured: US calculate its probability?
Each of the six factors is tracked on a 0-100 scale, multiplied by its weight, and combined into a composite score. This score is then mapped to a four-year probability through a logistic function. The methodology and sources are detailed within the app.
What are the six contributing factors in Fractured: US?
The six factors are Political Polarization (20%), Institutional Distrust (15%), Political Violence (20%), Economic Stress (10%), Partisan Animosity (20%), and Extremist Activity (15%). Each is presented on a 0-100 scale with its weight visible.
Can I see historical data in Fractured: US?
Yes, Fractured: US includes a trend chart showing data over 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 2-year periods. It also marks notable national events and historical analogues on the chart.
Does Fractured: US have ads?
No, Fractured: US does not contain advertisements. It is a free application focused on presenting its data without commercial interruptions.
What devices is Fractured: US available on?
Fractured: US is available for iPhone and iPad devices. It is designed to be accessible on Apple's mobile and tablet platforms.
How often is Fractured: US updated?
The app was last updated on September 13, 2026, with version 1.4. The frequency of updates depends on the availability of new data for its contributing factors.
What is the age rating for Fractured: US?
Fractured: US has an age rating of 9+. This indicates it is suitable for users aged 9 and older, considering the nature of its content.
