Reckon vs To Do Machine

Reckon ranks hypotheses by what hasn't been knocked down — not by what has the most support. Most decision tools let you write a long pros-and-cons list and call it analysis. That doesn't help — you can rationalize anything in prose. Reckon makes you compare every piece of evidence against every hypothesis and ranks them by Heuer's ACH technique (the method CIA analysts use): fewest refutations first, with a tiebreak on most support. WHAT YOU GET • A starter library: pick from six pre-built example boards (shortseller, founder, researcher, investigator, life decision, doctor) or describe your situation in a paragraph and let on-device AI seed the matrix for you. • Inline bias guardrails: when one hypothesis collects evidence all in the same direction, Reckon flags it. "Bears out" without "Cuts against" is the structural signature of confirmation bias. • Falsifier pre-commitment: state up front what evidence would prove a hypothesis wrong. The app reminds you whether that evidence ever showed up. • Steel-manning before ruling out: before you dismiss a hypothesis, Reckon asks for the strongest case for it. Stops you from throwing out the right answer too early. • Pre-mortem: after you reach a conclusion, the app asks you to imagine being wrong about it in a year. Catches wishful thinking that even refutation-first scoring misses. • Calibration tracking: when you finalize, set your confidence (0–100%) and a check-in date (1 week to 1 year). Come back when the date arrives, log the actual outcome, and Reckon shows your calibration curve over time. Are you actually right when you say you're 80% sure? • Strict Bayes mode (optional): set explicit priors per hypothesis and the matrix shows real Bayesian posterior probabilities updating with each rating, using likelihood ratios per Tetlock/Heuer convention. Real probability, not a heuristic. • Plain English mode: turns off the celestial vocabulary if you'd rather see "Hypotheses / Evidence / Matrix" than "Stars / Observations / Star chart." Same depth, less poetry. • Templates: save your hypothesis structure (e.g. forensic-accounting suspects, differential-diagnosis options) for reuse. Faster on your 12th board than your 1st. PRIVACY Local-only. Your boards, evidence, conclusions, and calibration history stay on your device. No server, no analytics, no ads. AI seed runs entirely on-device via Apple Intelligence — your situation never leaves your phone. WHY ACH Confirming evidence is cheap. Refuting evidence distinguishes. Most decision tools amplify confirmation bias by rewarding biggest positive sum. Reckon does the opposite. iOS 17+. AI seed and Strict Bayes posterior require iOS 26+ on Apple Intelligence-capable devices.

The only productivity app you design yourself. Most to-do apps make you bend to their rules. To Do Machine flips the workshop on its head — open the back panel, swap the parts, paint it your color. Talk to it in plain English and watch your task inbox, your projects, and your entire workflow rebuild themselves in real time. Built natively for Mac and iOS. Perfectly in sync. — WHO IT'S FOR — For the people who've tried every to-do app and bounced off them all. For the ones who keep building systems in Notion, then abandoning them. For anyone whose brain works a specific way and is tired of apps that don't. To Do Machine isn't another opinionated workflow. It's a workshop where you build the one that fits you. — DESIGN IT YOURSELF — Tell To Do Machine what you want and it remakes the app around you. "Make the inbox darker and put due dates on the right" — done. Switch any project to list, kanban, calendar, focus, or blueprint view. Invent your own statuses, fields, and automations, project by project. Every tweak syncs to all your devices instantly. — AI THAT DOES THE TYPING — Just say what's on your mind. To Do Machine writes the tasks, breaks them into projects, sets reminders, and finds time on your calendar — no tapping the + button. "Plan my Q3" → full project with milestones, weekly check-ins, and time blocks. Auto-triage your inbox: priority, due dates, parent project. A daily standup that drafts your day before you've finished your coffee. — CALENDAR IN, DAY OUT — Connect Apple or Google Calendar and your tasks thread themselves between your meetings. Two-way sync with Apple or Google Calendar. Time-blocking that respects your meetings, focus blocks, and breaks. Move a meeting and your tasks move with it. — INSTANTLY SYNCED BETWEEN iOS AND MAC — Tasks, projects, and calendars sync in milliseconds. Custom layouts and themes travel with you. Redesign your inbox on Mac at lunch — it's waiting on your iPhone by the time you stand up. Assembled in Brooklyn, NY. Terms of Use: https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/